中型城市建築物火災空間資料分析－以彰化市為例

Among urban disasters, fire is a common disaster in urban areas. In the past, urban fire literature was mostly focused on metropolitan areas such as Taiwan municipalities. It is often analyzed on Environmental space presented with fire statistic description, that often studying with traditional multiple regression. However, the spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity of fire spatial region have not been carefully studied in literature, which will lack of the explanatory power of urban fire theory due to spatial variability. Therefore, this study we choose Changhua City, a medium-sized city in Taiwan, as a case study. And that Ripley's K-function to find out the spatial aggregation phenomenon in the building fire, and then uses the kernel density estimation and the index of the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (Gi*) find out the building fire potential and the so called "hot zone". Our results show that the high potential area and the hot zone are concentrated in the urban area. That also indicates that the Anthropogenic socio-economic characteristics and urban environment characteristics were selected through the urban buildings fire theory. Taking the smallest statistical area as a sample, it is analyzed through traditional multiple regression, spatial lag model and spatial error model, and geographically weighted regression. Our empirical findings concluded that the best model is the geographically weighted regression, and confirmed the hypothesis of the spatial variability in building fire and regional spatial characteristics. The empirical results show that building fire incidence rate was positively correlated to variables of population density, area ratio of mixed-use residential district, while the population of higher education is negatively correlated.