以模糊點估計法評析降雨引致淺層邊坡破壞機率

Translated title of the contribution: Assessment of Probability of Failure on Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Using a Fuzzy Point Estimate Method

Ya Sin Yang, Hsin Fu Yeh, Chien Chung Ke, Nai Chin Chen, Kuo Chin Chang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides involve complex hydrological and mechanical interaction. The measurement of hydromechanical behavior and quantification of mechanical parameters is critical for the early warning and management of hillslope landslides. The Babaoliao area in Chiayi, Taiwan, has a history of slope deformation; thus, a slope in that area with displacements was selected as a case study. This study used the fuzzy point estimate method and coupled hydromechanical model and also computed the local factor of safety. The probability of failure was assessed through reliability analysis and the model validated using historical rainfall event data. This study further predicted the probability of failure with the same rainfall volume under different patterns. The results demonstrated that the model can predict the tempo-spatial instability distribution of a hillslope. Different rainfall patterns affect the infiltration flux, leading to distinct slope failure times. This paper offers valuable insight into the warning threshold value for slope management.

Translated title of the contributionAssessment of Probability of Failure on Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Using a Fuzzy Point Estimate Method
Original languageChinese (Traditional)
Pages (from-to)145-157
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation
Volume52
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Sept

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Soil Science
  • Earth-Surface Processes

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