解析霸權應對崛起強權策略—美中兩強在關鍵新興科技之權力競爭的理論啟示

The specific strategies employed by a hegemon in dealing with rising powers are a crucial aspect of understanding the power competition between the United States and China. International relations paradigms have been influenced by the notion of the inevitable decline of hegemonic power, often disregarding the fact that a hegemon is a product of international-level efforts in science and technological innovation. This article aims to delineate the significance of technological innovation in maintaining global dominance for a hegemon with the leadership long cycles theory. It presents an analytical framework to examine how a hegemon addresses the challenge posed by rising powers aiming to catch up in technological innovation. The analysis delves into the varied aspects of the United States' responses to threats posed by technological advancements from the Soviet Union and Japan during the Cold War. It identifies measures adopted by the United States, such as export controls, self-strengthening, self-reinforcement, containment, and absorption, particularly in critical emerging high-tech sectors, in an effort to impede China's progress in technological innovation. The article concludes that the efficacy of export-control measures in stalling China's technological advancements is not substantial. Looking ahead, the ability of the United States to control crucial nodes in the technological innovation network, rally support from its allies, and drive domestic technological innovations will pose a significant challenge to its sustained hegemony.