China's listed companies once been marked ”special treatment” (ST) companies in case of financial standing abnormality, it not only raised a serious alarm to the enterprises, but also caused the investors and shareholders to huge losses. The follow-up impacts of enterprises' operational crises could severely harm the whole economy society. This research concerns how to evaluate the distress probabilities and duration accurately from beginning to end, whether the end is safety or plunge, and try to design financial distress warning model. This article reexamines benefit and weakness of methodologies by literatures review, trying to find out the most effective analysis tools. The discriminate ratios estimated by cascaded logistic function could be higher than 92.6% from the comparative empirical evidences. The estimation results are lack of stability by back-propagation neural network. Furthermore, the enterprises distress duration estimated by absorbing Markov chain on the categorical critical values base. It could provide distress companies exactly approximations about relisted or failure state. Conclusively, we hope provide valid quantitative recommendation about risk assessment of China's listed companies.
|Translated title of the contribution||Reexamining the Enterprises Distress of China's Stock Market|
|Original language||Chinese (Traditional)|
|Number of pages||44|
|Journal||遠景基金會季刊 ＝ Prospect Quarterly|
|Publication status||Published - 2008 Apr 1|