TY - JOUR
T1 - A forecasting model for small non-equigap data sets considering data weights and occurrence possibilities
AU - Chang, Che Jung
AU - Li, Der Chiang
AU - Chen, Chien Chih
AU - Chen, Chia Sheng
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - In the early stages of manufacturing systems, it is often difficult to obtain sufficient data to make accurate forecasts. Grey system theory is one of the approaches to deal with this issue, as it uses fairly small sets to construct forecasting models. Among published grey models, the current non-equigap grey models can deal with data having unequal gaps, and have been applied in various fields. However, these models usually use fixed modeling procedures that do not consider data growth trend differences. This paper utilizes the trend and potency tracking method to determine the parameter α of the background value to build an adaptive non-equigap grey model to improve forecasting performance. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method considers that data occurrence properties can obtain better forecasting results.
AB - In the early stages of manufacturing systems, it is often difficult to obtain sufficient data to make accurate forecasts. Grey system theory is one of the approaches to deal with this issue, as it uses fairly small sets to construct forecasting models. Among published grey models, the current non-equigap grey models can deal with data having unequal gaps, and have been applied in various fields. However, these models usually use fixed modeling procedures that do not consider data growth trend differences. This paper utilizes the trend and potency tracking method to determine the parameter α of the background value to build an adaptive non-equigap grey model to improve forecasting performance. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method considers that data occurrence properties can obtain better forecasting results.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.cie.2013.11.002
DO - 10.1016/j.cie.2013.11.002
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84888591943
SN - 0360-8352
VL - 67
SP - 139
EP - 145
JO - Computers and Industrial Engineering
JF - Computers and Industrial Engineering
IS - 1
ER -