A predictive model of the freight rate of the international market in capesize dry bulk carriers

Ching-Chih Chang, Chin Yuan Hsieh, Yung Chih Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This study examines the considerable fluctuations of the world's dry bulk shipping market from November 1995 to September 2008. The major objective is to provide a forecasting model for the freight rate in relation to the second-hand ship price. The results indicate an acceptable level of prediction according to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with a value no more than 20%. It is anticipated that this research will prove germane to major stakeholders, including owners, charters, investors and bankers, by forecasting the freight rate and thereby expediting the decisionmaking process.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)313-317
Number of pages5
JournalApplied Economics Letters
Volume19
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Mar 1

Fingerprint

Freight rates
International markets
Investors
Bankers
Prediction
Shipping
Stakeholders
Owners
Charter
Ship
Fluctuations
Decision-making process

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

@article{f08039c414274a16b8277d1abc0f9382,
title = "A predictive model of the freight rate of the international market in capesize dry bulk carriers",
abstract = "This study examines the considerable fluctuations of the world's dry bulk shipping market from November 1995 to September 2008. The major objective is to provide a forecasting model for the freight rate in relation to the second-hand ship price. The results indicate an acceptable level of prediction according to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with a value no more than 20{\%}. It is anticipated that this research will prove germane to major stakeholders, including owners, charters, investors and bankers, by forecasting the freight rate and thereby expediting the decisionmaking process.",
author = "Ching-Chih Chang and Hsieh, {Chin Yuan} and Lin, {Yung Chih}",
year = "2012",
month = "3",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1080/13504851.2011.576998",
language = "English",
volume = "19",
pages = "313--317",
journal = "Applied Economics Letters",
issn = "1350-4851",
publisher = "Routledge",
number = "4",

}

A predictive model of the freight rate of the international market in capesize dry bulk carriers. / Chang, Ching-Chih; Hsieh, Chin Yuan; Lin, Yung Chih.

In: Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 19, No. 4, 01.03.2012, p. 313-317.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - A predictive model of the freight rate of the international market in capesize dry bulk carriers

AU - Chang, Ching-Chih

AU - Hsieh, Chin Yuan

AU - Lin, Yung Chih

PY - 2012/3/1

Y1 - 2012/3/1

N2 - This study examines the considerable fluctuations of the world's dry bulk shipping market from November 1995 to September 2008. The major objective is to provide a forecasting model for the freight rate in relation to the second-hand ship price. The results indicate an acceptable level of prediction according to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with a value no more than 20%. It is anticipated that this research will prove germane to major stakeholders, including owners, charters, investors and bankers, by forecasting the freight rate and thereby expediting the decisionmaking process.

AB - This study examines the considerable fluctuations of the world's dry bulk shipping market from November 1995 to September 2008. The major objective is to provide a forecasting model for the freight rate in relation to the second-hand ship price. The results indicate an acceptable level of prediction according to Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), with a value no more than 20%. It is anticipated that this research will prove germane to major stakeholders, including owners, charters, investors and bankers, by forecasting the freight rate and thereby expediting the decisionmaking process.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80051869933&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80051869933&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/13504851.2011.576998

DO - 10.1080/13504851.2011.576998

M3 - Article

VL - 19

SP - 313

EP - 317

JO - Applied Economics Letters

JF - Applied Economics Letters

SN - 1350-4851

IS - 4

ER -