A probabilistic model for real-time flood warning based on deterministic flood inundation mapping

Jiun-Huei Jang, Pao-Shan Yu, Sen Hai Yeh, Jin Cheng Fu, Chen Jia Huang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Deterministic flood inundation mapping is valuable for the investigation of detailed flood depth and extent. However, when these data are used for real-time flood warning, uncertainty arises while encountering the difficulties of timely response, message interpretation and performance evaluation that makes statistical analysis necessary. By incorporating deterministic flood inundation map outputs statistically by means of logistic regression, this paper presents a probabilistic real-time flood warning model determining region-based flood probability directly from rainfall, being efficient in computation, clear in message, and valid in physical meaning. The calibration and validation of the probabilistic model show a satisfactory overall correctness rate, with the hit rate far surpassing the false alarm rate in issuing flood warning for historical events. Further analyses show that the probabilistic model is effective in evaluating the level of uncertainty lying within flood warning which can be reduced by several techniques proposed in order to improve warning performance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1079-1089
Number of pages11
JournalHydrological Processes
Volume26
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Mar 30

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology

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