A probabilistic seismic risk analysis of building losses in Taipei: An application of Haz-Taiwan with its pre-processor and post-processor

We employ a probabilistic seismic risk analysis to estimate exceedance probability curves, average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss (PML) of building stocks in Taipei. It utilizes an event-driven loss estimation model, HAZ-Taiwan, and develops its pre-processing and post-processing software modules. The pre-processing module establishes a set of hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes. The HAZ-Taiwan model estimates hazards, vulnerabilities and economic losses for each scenario earthquake. The aggregate and occurrence exceedance probability curves for building losses and their confidence intervals are simulated using the Monte Carlo simulation in the postprocessing module. It is found that the exceedance probability of an aggregate loss of USD 1.22 billion is 0.001. This amount of loss is approximately 2.78% of the total building stocks in Taipei. Its 5%-95% confidence intervals range from USD 1.13–1.31 billion. The average annual loss of buildings in Taipei is currently USD 32 million, or approximately 0.07% of the total building stocks.