Application of Grey model toward runoff forecasting

P. S. Yu, C. J. Chen, S. J. Chen, S. C. Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A reliable forecasting model is essential in real-time flood forecasting for reducing natural damage. Efforts to develop a real-time forecasting model over the past two decades have been numerous. This work applies the Grey model to forecast rainfall and runoff owing to the model's relative ability to predict the future using a small amount of historical data. Such a model significantly differs from the stochastic and deterministic models developed previously. Ten historical storm events from two catchment areas in northern Taiwan are selected to calibrate and verify the model. Results in this study demonstrate that the proposed models can reasonably forecast runoff one to four hours ahead, if the Grey error prediction method is further used to update the output of the model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)151-166
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of the American Water Resources Association
Volume37
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001 Jan 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Earth-Surface Processes

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