Application of Markov and Logit models on monitoring landscape changes

In this study, we applied Markov and Logit models to investigate future landscape changes and the spatial distribution of illegal cultivation of forestlands in the Lienhwachih of Taiwan Forestry Research Institute in southwestern Taiwan. The land use maps in 1971 and 1998 were first digitized. The Markov model was then applied to predict future landscape changes, and the Logit regression model with 5 terrain factors was used to analyze the spatial relationship between illegal cultivation of forestlands and environmental factors. Finally, the results obtained from these 2 models were integrated to simulate the spatial distribution of illegal cultivation of forestlands. The prediction of future landscape changes using the Markov model indicated that the area of illegal cultivation of forestlands would increase from 0.39% in 1971 and 3.39% in 1998 to 12.08% in 2052 and 16.09% in 2106. As for the spatial distribution using the Logit regression analysis, the results showed that the occurrence of illegal cultivation of forestlands was related to the elevation, slope, and the distance to roads, streams, and previous illegal cultivation, with particularly high correlations with the distance to roads and illegal cultivation. Finally, the spatial simulation of illegal cultivation illustrated that the spatial distribution of illegal cultivation would gradually expand, and the configuration of overall landscape structure would indirectly be affected.