Assessing the vulnerability of fishery villages influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activity in the coastal zone of the Tamsui River

Coastal zones located in populated and rapidly developing areas face high risks of natural and anthropogenic disasters. In this study, a framework was developed to determine the indicators of vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic disasters in Chuwei and Tamsui, two northern Taiwanese fishing villages in the coastal zone of the Tamsui River. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the vulnerability indices of the locations, with experts evaluating the weights assigned to a range of criteria, namely hydrological data (such as sea surface temperature and sea level), stakeholder perceptions, and fishery data. These two villages have a considerably homogenous exposure (0.202) to hydrological conditions. However, Tamsui had a lower vulnerability value (0.317) than Chuwei (0.348), indicating that Tamsui faced fewer effects from natural and anthropogenic change than did Chuwei. In addition, vulnerability was most heavily influenced by the adaptive capacity of these two villages (Tamsui = 0.276; Chuwei = 0.112). This study suggests that both climate change and human factors (e.g., overfishing and pollution) cause decreases in marine resources, thus affecting the livelihoods of stakeholders.