Change-point detection of long-duration extreme precipitation and the effect on hydrologic design: A case study of south Taiwan

Hone-Jay Chu, Tsung Yi Pan, Jun Jih Liou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An increase in the global temperature has intensified the hydrologic cycle, which affects the temporal patterns of precipitation. This study analyzed a long-term annual dataset measuring maximum precipitation in south Taiwan, and identified the change point of the time series using the cumulative sum technique. The result reveals a clear change point of the annual maximum rainfall for 24-h durations in 2004 at most observations. The average 24-h-duration precipitation depth in the study area increased by 27 and 36% for 20-year and 100-year extreme events compared with and without data after 2004, respectively. The long-duration precipitation depth demonstrates a significant positive trend following the change point. Furthermore, this study assesses the changes of hydrologic design while precipitation data are updated annually. The designed 20- and 100-year storm will decrease abruptly when the observed data are subsequently updated until 2004. Because of climate change, this issue is worthy of attention in hydrologic designs.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1123-1130
Number of pages8
JournalStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume26
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Feb 2

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Environmental Science(all)

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