Comparison of grey and phase-space rainfall forecasting models using a fuzzy decision method

Pao Shan Yu, Shien Tsung Chen, Che Chuan Wu, Shu Chen Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This work applies a fuzzy decision method to compare the performance of the grey model with that of the phase-space model, in forecasting rainfall one to three hours ahead. Four indices and two statistical tests are used to evaluate objectively the performance of the forecasting models. However, a trade-off must be made in choosing a suitable model because various indices may lead to different judgements. Therefore, a fuzzy decision model was applied to solve this problem and to make the optimum decision. The results of fuzzy decision making demonstrate that the grey model outperforms the phase-space model for forecasting one hour ahead, but the phase-space model performs better for forecasting two or three hours ahead.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)655-672
Number of pages18
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume49
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2004 Aug

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Water Science and Technology

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