Development and validation of a prediction index for recent mortality in advanced COPD patients

Sheng Han Tsai, Chia Yin Shih, Chin Wei Kuo, Xin Min Liao, Peng Chan Lin, Chian Wei Chen, Tzuen Ren Hsiue, Chiung Zuei Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


The primary barrier to initiating palliative care for advanced COPD patients is the unpredictable course of the disease. We enroll 752 COPD patients into the study and validate the prediction tools for 1-year mortality using the current guidelines for palliative care. We also develop a composite prediction index for 1-year mortality and validate it in another cohort of 342 patients. Using the current prognostic models for recent mortality in palliative care, the best area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality is 0.68. Using the Modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score and oxygen saturation to define the combined dyspnea and oxygenation (DO) index, we find that the AUC of the DO index is 0.84 for predicting mortality in the validated cohort. Predictions of 1-year mortality based on the current palliative care guideline for COPD patients are poor. The DO index exhibits better predictive ability than other models in the study.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2
Journalnpj Primary Care Respiratory Medicine
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2022 Dec

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Family Practice


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