### Abstract

By adopting the transition probability matrix of Markov chain method, this paper attempts to predict the short-term wave height information. This study presents the discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory, so as to understand the capability of this theory for wave forecast. The wave forecast results are obtained from wave height transition probability matrix; it shows the mean errors of the prediction of wave height within 3 days forecast are all less than 30 cm respectively. For the sake of the decrease of the error of wave forecast, the joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain which based on the observed wind speed and wave height data is applied in this study. It shows the method of joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain is suitable for wave forecast in the Beaufort scale 1-6 grades. Various wave forecasts result in different seasons are also discussed here; the accuracies of the forecast wave height are relatively high in winter. There might be a great error of wave forecast during typhoon duration due to its non-stationary characteristics, which influences the accuracy of transition probability matrix of Markov chain.

Original language | English |
---|---|

Title of host publication | Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 |

Pages | 1965-1969 |

Number of pages | 5 |

Publication status | Published - 2007 Dec 3 |

Event | 17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 - Lisbon, Portugal Duration: 2007 Jul 1 → 2007 Jul 6 |

### Publication series

Name | Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference |
---|---|

ISSN (Print) | 1098-6189 |

ISSN (Electronic) | 1555-1792 |

### Other

Other | 17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 |
---|---|

Country | Portugal |

City | Lisbon |

Period | 07-07-01 → 07-07-06 |

### Fingerprint

### All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
- Ocean Engineering
- Mechanical Engineering

### Cite this

*Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007*(pp. 1965-1969). (Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference).

}

*Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007.*Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, pp. 1965-1969, 17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007, Lisbon, Portugal, 07-07-01.

**Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory.** / Lee, Beng Chun; Wu, Li Chung; Doong, Dong Jiing.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory

AU - Lee, Beng Chun

AU - Wu, Li Chung

AU - Doong, Dong Jiing

PY - 2007/12/3

Y1 - 2007/12/3

N2 - By adopting the transition probability matrix of Markov chain method, this paper attempts to predict the short-term wave height information. This study presents the discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory, so as to understand the capability of this theory for wave forecast. The wave forecast results are obtained from wave height transition probability matrix; it shows the mean errors of the prediction of wave height within 3 days forecast are all less than 30 cm respectively. For the sake of the decrease of the error of wave forecast, the joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain which based on the observed wind speed and wave height data is applied in this study. It shows the method of joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain is suitable for wave forecast in the Beaufort scale 1-6 grades. Various wave forecasts result in different seasons are also discussed here; the accuracies of the forecast wave height are relatively high in winter. There might be a great error of wave forecast during typhoon duration due to its non-stationary characteristics, which influences the accuracy of transition probability matrix of Markov chain.

AB - By adopting the transition probability matrix of Markov chain method, this paper attempts to predict the short-term wave height information. This study presents the discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory, so as to understand the capability of this theory for wave forecast. The wave forecast results are obtained from wave height transition probability matrix; it shows the mean errors of the prediction of wave height within 3 days forecast are all less than 30 cm respectively. For the sake of the decrease of the error of wave forecast, the joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain which based on the observed wind speed and wave height data is applied in this study. It shows the method of joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain is suitable for wave forecast in the Beaufort scale 1-6 grades. Various wave forecasts result in different seasons are also discussed here; the accuracies of the forecast wave height are relatively high in winter. There might be a great error of wave forecast during typhoon duration due to its non-stationary characteristics, which influences the accuracy of transition probability matrix of Markov chain.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=36448972347&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=36448972347&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:36448972347

SN - 1880653680

SN - 9781880653685

T3 - Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference

SP - 1965

EP - 1969

BT - Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007

ER -