Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory

Beng Chun Lee, Li Chung Wu, Dong Jiing Doong

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

By adopting the transition probability matrix of Markov chain method, this paper attempts to predict the short-term wave height information. This study presents the discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory, so as to understand the capability of this theory for wave forecast. The wave forecast results are obtained from wave height transition probability matrix; it shows the mean errors of the prediction of wave height within 3 days forecast are all less than 30 cm respectively. For the sake of the decrease of the error of wave forecast, the joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain which based on the observed wind speed and wave height data is applied in this study. It shows the method of joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain is suitable for wave forecast in the Beaufort scale 1-6 grades. Various wave forecasts result in different seasons are also discussed here; the accuracies of the forecast wave height are relatively high in winter. There might be a great error of wave forecast during typhoon duration due to its non-stationary characteristics, which influences the accuracy of transition probability matrix of Markov chain.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007
Pages1965-1969
Number of pages5
Publication statusPublished - 2007 Dec 3
Event17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 - Lisbon, Portugal
Duration: 2007 Jul 12007 Jul 6

Publication series

NameProceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference
ISSN (Print)1098-6189
ISSN (Electronic)1555-1792

Other

Other17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007
CountryPortugal
CityLisbon
Period07-07-0107-07-06

Fingerprint

Markov processes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering

Cite this

Lee, B. C., Wu, L. C., & Doong, D. J. (2007). Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory. In Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 (pp. 1965-1969). (Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference).
Lee, Beng Chun ; Wu, Li Chung ; Doong, Dong Jiing. / Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory. Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007. 2007. pp. 1965-1969 (Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference).
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Lee, BC, Wu, LC & Doong, DJ 2007, Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory. in Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007. Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, pp. 1965-1969, 17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007, Lisbon, Portugal, 07-07-01.

Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory. / Lee, Beng Chun; Wu, Li Chung; Doong, Dong Jiing.

Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007. 2007. p. 1965-1969 (Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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Lee BC, Wu LC, Doong DJ. Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory. In Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007. 2007. p. 1965-1969. (Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference).