Ensemble forecasting on typhoon wave modelling

Shunqi Pan, Yang Ming Fan, Jia Ming Chen, Chia Chuen Kao

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to quantitatively assess the effect of uncertainties on the wave forecasts using the ensemble approach. The ensemble method is an effective approach to assess the effect of the model uncertainty by producing not only one, but several forecasts. The ensemble wave modelling system was applied to the Taiwan sea area, especially for typhoon wave. There are four different operational atmospheric models that provide predictions of wind at 10 m height above sea surface. The simulated wave of WAVEWATCH III drove from NCEP, JMA, NFS, and WRF wind fields. From the simulated wave heights of all ensemble members, it can be clearly seen that the uncertainties from the atmospheric predictions have significantly affected the predicted hydrodynamic results. A further ensemble statistics, including the ensemble mean, and mean ± standard deviation. The ensemble statistics that the accuracy of the waves can be considerably improved by the ensemble mean + standard deviation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages473-479
Number of pages7
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Jan 1
Event6th Chinese-German Joint Symposium on Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, CGJOINT 2012 - Keelung, Taiwan
Duration: 2012 Sep 232012 Sep 29

Other

Other6th Chinese-German Joint Symposium on Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, CGJOINT 2012
CountryTaiwan
CityKeelung
Period12-09-2312-09-29

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ocean Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology

Cite this

Pan, S., Fan, Y. M., Chen, J. M., & Kao, C. C. (2012). Ensemble forecasting on typhoon wave modelling. 473-479. Paper presented at 6th Chinese-German Joint Symposium on Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, CGJOINT 2012, Keelung, Taiwan.