Ensemble wave forecasting over typhoon period

Yang Ming Fan, Shunqi Pan, Jia Ming Chen, Chia Chuen Kao

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to quantitatively assess the effect of uncertainties on the wave forecasts using the ensemble approach. The ensemble method is an effective approach to assess the effect of the model uncertainty by producing not only one, but several forecasts. The ensemble wave modelling system was applied to the Taiwan sea area, especially for typhoon wave. There are four different operational atmospheric models that provide predictions of wind at 10 m height above sea surface. The simulated wave of WAVEWATCH III drove from NCEP, JMA, NFS, and WRF wind fields. From the simulated wave heights of all ensemble members, it can be clearly seen that the uncertainties from the atmospheric predictions have significantly affected the predicted hydrodynamic results. A further ensemble statistics, including the ensemble mean, and mean ± standard deviation. The measurement outcome scatters in between wave forecasting of mean + standard deviation and mean - standard deviation, which proves that the ensemble forecasting is able to reasonably predict typhoon waves. Therefore, the accuracy of the predictions of waves can be significantly improved by using ensemble approach closer to the observed wave measurement.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationOCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen
Subtitle of host publicationThe Challenges of the Northern Dimension
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Oct 30
EventOCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension - Bergen, Norway
Duration: 2013 Jun 102013 Jun 13

Publication series

NameOCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension

Conference

ConferenceOCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension
CountryNorway
CityBergen
Period13-06-1013-06-13

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All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ocean Engineering

Cite this

Fan, Y. M., Pan, S., Chen, J. M., & Kao, C. C. (2013). Ensemble wave forecasting over typhoon period. In OCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension [6608029] (OCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension). https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS-Bergen.2013.6608029