Estimation of occurrence probability of oceanic rogue waves

Leng Hsuan Tseng, Ying Chih Chen, Jen Ping Peng, Dong-Jiing Doong, Cheng Han Tsai

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Freak wave may cause danger to ships or people who active at coastal area. Prediction of freak wave can provide early alarm information and hence reduce risks of hazards. However, due to the unclear of freak wave mechanism, deterministic prediction is not possible but stochastic method can be used for research of occurrence probability of freak waves. In this study, nonlinear wave theory is considered for derivation of freak wave occurrence probability. It is function of number of waves and kurtosis of water elevation. Field data from long-term measurements were used for validation which demonstrates the existence of bias. The average root-mean-square-error is 22.4% which is acceptable.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationOCEANS 2014 - TAIPEI
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781479936465
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Nov 20
EventOCEANS 2014 MTS/IEEE Taipei Conference: Oceans Regeneration - Taipei, Taiwan
Duration: 2014 Apr 72014 Apr 10

Other

OtherOCEANS 2014 MTS/IEEE Taipei Conference: Oceans Regeneration
CountryTaiwan
CityTaipei
Period14-04-0714-04-10

Fingerprint

Mean square error
Hazards
Ships
Water

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ocean Engineering

Cite this

Tseng, L. H., Chen, Y. C., Peng, J. P., Doong, D-J., & Tsai, C. H. (2014). Estimation of occurrence probability of oceanic rogue waves. In OCEANS 2014 - TAIPEI [6964535] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS-TAIPEI.2014.6964535
Tseng, Leng Hsuan ; Chen, Ying Chih ; Peng, Jen Ping ; Doong, Dong-Jiing ; Tsai, Cheng Han. / Estimation of occurrence probability of oceanic rogue waves. OCEANS 2014 - TAIPEI. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2014.
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Tseng, LH, Chen, YC, Peng, JP, Doong, D-J & Tsai, CH 2014, Estimation of occurrence probability of oceanic rogue waves. in OCEANS 2014 - TAIPEI., 6964535, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., OCEANS 2014 MTS/IEEE Taipei Conference: Oceans Regeneration, Taipei, Taiwan, 14-04-07. https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS-TAIPEI.2014.6964535

Estimation of occurrence probability of oceanic rogue waves. / Tseng, Leng Hsuan; Chen, Ying Chih; Peng, Jen Ping; Doong, Dong-Jiing; Tsai, Cheng Han.

OCEANS 2014 - TAIPEI. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2014. 6964535.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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N2 - Freak wave may cause danger to ships or people who active at coastal area. Prediction of freak wave can provide early alarm information and hence reduce risks of hazards. However, due to the unclear of freak wave mechanism, deterministic prediction is not possible but stochastic method can be used for research of occurrence probability of freak waves. In this study, nonlinear wave theory is considered for derivation of freak wave occurrence probability. It is function of number of waves and kurtosis of water elevation. Field data from long-term measurements were used for validation which demonstrates the existence of bias. The average root-mean-square-error is 22.4% which is acceptable.

AB - Freak wave may cause danger to ships or people who active at coastal area. Prediction of freak wave can provide early alarm information and hence reduce risks of hazards. However, due to the unclear of freak wave mechanism, deterministic prediction is not possible but stochastic method can be used for research of occurrence probability of freak waves. In this study, nonlinear wave theory is considered for derivation of freak wave occurrence probability. It is function of number of waves and kurtosis of water elevation. Field data from long-term measurements were used for validation which demonstrates the existence of bias. The average root-mean-square-error is 22.4% which is acceptable.

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Tseng LH, Chen YC, Peng JP, Doong D-J, Tsai CH. Estimation of occurrence probability of oceanic rogue waves. In OCEANS 2014 - TAIPEI. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2014. 6964535 https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANS-TAIPEI.2014.6964535