Evaluating the effects of land-use strategies on future flood risk reduction in urban areas

Extreme flooding events have brought severe damages to cities around the world. In order to reduce the possible effects of flooding in urban areas, spatial planning is increasingly considered to be one of the most feasible solutions. In order to assess the effectiveness of land use management strategies in cities, this study develops an integrated modelling framework for capturing dynamic relationships between land-use change and urban flooding. Taking Taipei City as the study area, an agent-based land-use model that represents the interactions among stakeholders during the migration, planning and development processes is developed to gain greater insights into how planning strategies influence the spatial and temporal dynamics of environmental change in urban areas. A two dimensional dynamic inundation model and a flood-risk assessment model is then constructed and applied to quantify the differences resulting from flood-risk reduction across different planning and rainfall future scenarios. Finally, the relative effectiveness of different land-use strategies is evaluated according to the potential reductions in monetary value of damage. The main purpose of this study is to develop a useful tool for planning decision-makers to effectively evaluate land use flood risk reduction strategies proposed by city governments before actually implemented in the planning process.