Geriatric influenza death (GID) score

A new tool for predicting mortality in older people with influenza in the emergency department

Jui Yuan Chung, Chien Chin Hsu, Jiann Hwa Chen, Wei Lung Chen, Hung Jung Lin, How-Ran Guo, Chien Cheng Huang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although influenza may cause death in the geriatric population, the best method for predicting mortality in this population is still unclear. We retrospectively recruited older people (≥65 yr) with influenza visiting the emergency department (ED) of a medical center between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent mortality predictors and then developed a prediction score. Four hundred nine older ED patients with a nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. Five independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma (Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤8), past histories of cancer and coronary artery disease, elevated C-reactive protein levels (>10 mg/dl), and bandemia (>10% band cells). We divided the patients into three mortality risk and disposition groups: (1) low risk (1.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-3.0%); (2) moderate risk (16.7%; 95% CI, 9.3-28.0%); and (3) high risk (40%; 95% CI, 19.8-64.2%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of the GID score were 0.86 and 0.578, respectively. The GID score is an efficient and simple tool for predicting mortality in older ED patients with influenza. Further studies are warranted to validate its use.

Original languageEnglish
Article number9312
JournalScientific reports
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Dec 1

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Geriatrics
Human Influenza
Hospital Emergency Service
Mortality
Confidence Intervals
Glasgow Coma Scale
Sex Ratio
Coma
ROC Curve
C-Reactive Protein
Population
Coronary Artery Disease
Cause of Death
Logistic Models
Neoplasms

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Cite this

Chung, Jui Yuan ; Hsu, Chien Chin ; Chen, Jiann Hwa ; Chen, Wei Lung ; Lin, Hung Jung ; Guo, How-Ran ; Huang, Chien Cheng. / Geriatric influenza death (GID) score : A new tool for predicting mortality in older people with influenza in the emergency department. In: Scientific reports. 2018 ; Vol. 8, No. 1.
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abstract = "Although influenza may cause death in the geriatric population, the best method for predicting mortality in this population is still unclear. We retrospectively recruited older people (≥65 yr) with influenza visiting the emergency department (ED) of a medical center between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent mortality predictors and then developed a prediction score. Four hundred nine older ED patients with a nearly equal sex ratio were recruited. Five independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma (Glasgow Coma Scale score ≤8), past histories of cancer and coronary artery disease, elevated C-reactive protein levels (>10 mg/dl), and bandemia (>10{\%} band cells). We divided the patients into three mortality risk and disposition groups: (1) low risk (1.1{\%}; 95{\%} confidence interval [CI], 0.5-3.0{\%}); (2) moderate risk (16.7{\%}; 95{\%} CI, 9.3-28.0{\%}); and (3) high risk (40{\%}; 95{\%} CI, 19.8-64.2{\%}). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit of the GID score were 0.86 and 0.578, respectively. The GID score is an efficient and simple tool for predicting mortality in older ED patients with influenza. Further studies are warranted to validate its use.",
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Geriatric influenza death (GID) score : A new tool for predicting mortality in older people with influenza in the emergency department. / Chung, Jui Yuan; Hsu, Chien Chin; Chen, Jiann Hwa; Chen, Wei Lung; Lin, Hung Jung; Guo, How-Ran; Huang, Chien Cheng.

In: Scientific reports, Vol. 8, No. 1, 9312, 01.12.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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