Grey rainfall-stage model for forecasting flash flood stages during typhoons

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1 Citation (Scopus)


Typhoons often bring severe rainfall that causes flash floods and related disasters. An efficient flood forecasting model can provide informative forecasts to mitigate disasters. This study proposes a grey rainfallstage model based on the hydrologic concept of the rainfall-stage process and the assumption of grey system theory to process hydrologic variables by applying the accumulated generating operation. Flash flood events in Wu River, Taiwan, during typhoons were collected as the study data. The proposed grey rainfall-stage model was applied to forecast flood stages multiple hours ahead. Calibration and validation results show that the grey rainfall-stage model can perform real-time flood stage forecasting. Moreover, potential improvements of the grey rainfallstage model include deriving various model structures and applying different parameter calibration schemes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)11-19
Number of pages9
JournalDisaster Advances
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Jan 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)


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