Grey system modeling approach to power system yearly peak load forecasting

Applications of grey system modeling techniques to prediction of power system yearly peak loads and their occurring dates are described in this paper. For yearly peak load forecasting, a new hybrid grey model of GM(1,1) in conjunction with GM(1,2) is proposed. Corresponding dates on which peak loads occur are predicted by using the topological forecasting method. Complying with the characteristics of minimal historical yearly peak load records (only one peak load value for a year), the grey system techniques used in this paper only require a small amount of historical data (3 to 7 points of data) to set up a highly accurate forecasting model. The effectiveness of the developed models is demonstrated by predicting the actual Taiwan Power (Taipower) yearly peak loads and their related occurring dates.