TY - JOUR
T1 - Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan
AU - Wu, Pei Chih
AU - Lay, Jinn Guey
AU - Guo, How Ran
AU - Lin, Chuan Yao
AU - Lung, Shih Chun
AU - Su, Huey Jen
PY - 2009/3/15
Y1 - 2009/3/15
N2 - Our study conducted spatial analysis to examine how temperature and other environmental factors might affect dengue fever distributions, and to forecast areas with potential risk for dengue fever endemics with predicted climatic change in Taiwan. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to demonstrate the spatial patterns of all studied variables across 356 townships. Relationships between cumulative incidence of dengue fever, climatic and non-climatic factors were explored. Numbers of months with average temperature higher than 18 °C per year and degree of urbanization were found to be associated with increasing risk of dengue fever incidence at township level. With every 1 °C increase of monthly average temperature, the total population at risk for dengue fever transmission would increase by 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267). A highly-suggested warmer trend, with a statistical model, across the Taiwan Island is predicted to result in a sizable increase in population and geographical areas at higher risk for dengue fever epidemics.
AB - Our study conducted spatial analysis to examine how temperature and other environmental factors might affect dengue fever distributions, and to forecast areas with potential risk for dengue fever endemics with predicted climatic change in Taiwan. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to demonstrate the spatial patterns of all studied variables across 356 townships. Relationships between cumulative incidence of dengue fever, climatic and non-climatic factors were explored. Numbers of months with average temperature higher than 18 °C per year and degree of urbanization were found to be associated with increasing risk of dengue fever incidence at township level. With every 1 °C increase of monthly average temperature, the total population at risk for dengue fever transmission would increase by 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267). A highly-suggested warmer trend, with a statistical model, across the Taiwan Island is predicted to result in a sizable increase in population and geographical areas at higher risk for dengue fever epidemics.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.11.034
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.11.034
M3 - Article
C2 - 19157509
AN - SCOPUS:60649116930
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 407
SP - 2224
EP - 2233
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
IS - 7
ER -