Hydrological drought in Tseng-Wen reservoir basin under climate change scenarios

Shien Tsung Chen, Hung Wei Tseng, Chin Yuan Lin, Tao Chang Yang, Pao-Shan Yu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

The study area, Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin, receives temporally uneven precipitation and is thus a basin prone to suffer droughts. This study investigated the hydrologic droughts and low flow properties in the Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin under climate change scenarios. Projected climate change data were originally the large-scale climate fields output from six general circulation models in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those large-scale climate change data were then transformed into local-scale precipitation data over the study basin by a two-stage statistical downscaling method, consisting of a spatial downscaling method using the singular value decomposition method and a temporal downscaling method using a weather generator. The modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model was used to simulate the projected streamflow under climate change scenarios. Hydrological droughts were then identified pertaining to streamflow series by the threshold method, and drought and low flow properties were analyzed. The following summarizes important findings in this study: (1) Projected precipitation increases in the wet season, and either increases or decreases in the dry season pertaining to different months. (2) Projected streamflow increases during March to September, but decreases otherwise. (3) Projected low flow tends to decrease. (4) Scenario droughts may become more frequent, but their duration and magnitude may become more diverse than the baseline droughts. (5) The times of start and end of scenario droughts may occur earlier than baseline droughts. (6) Different trends of changes in hydrologic droughts were found under different general circulation models, thus uncertainties from general circulation models and other sources, e.g. downscaling process, should be taken into account.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)44-60
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Taiwan Agricultural Engineering
Volume57
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Sep 1

Fingerprint

Climate Change
Drought
Droughts
Climate change
drought
climate change
basins
General Circulation Models
stream flow
model uncertainty
Weather
Singular value decomposition
methodology
Climate
Uncertainty
dry season
Statistical methods
wet season
statistical analysis
weather

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Engineering(all)

Cite this

Chen, Shien Tsung ; Tseng, Hung Wei ; Lin, Chin Yuan ; Yang, Tao Chang ; Yu, Pao-Shan. / Hydrological drought in Tseng-Wen reservoir basin under climate change scenarios. In: Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Engineering. 2011 ; Vol. 57, No. 3. pp. 44-60.
@article{6dd10ce3cce54d1dabacbe50dbd368ed,
title = "Hydrological drought in Tseng-Wen reservoir basin under climate change scenarios",
abstract = "The study area, Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin, receives temporally uneven precipitation and is thus a basin prone to suffer droughts. This study investigated the hydrologic droughts and low flow properties in the Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin under climate change scenarios. Projected climate change data were originally the large-scale climate fields output from six general circulation models in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those large-scale climate change data were then transformed into local-scale precipitation data over the study basin by a two-stage statistical downscaling method, consisting of a spatial downscaling method using the singular value decomposition method and a temporal downscaling method using a weather generator. The modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byr{\aa}ns Vattenbalansavdelning) model was used to simulate the projected streamflow under climate change scenarios. Hydrological droughts were then identified pertaining to streamflow series by the threshold method, and drought and low flow properties were analyzed. The following summarizes important findings in this study: (1) Projected precipitation increases in the wet season, and either increases or decreases in the dry season pertaining to different months. (2) Projected streamflow increases during March to September, but decreases otherwise. (3) Projected low flow tends to decrease. (4) Scenario droughts may become more frequent, but their duration and magnitude may become more diverse than the baseline droughts. (5) The times of start and end of scenario droughts may occur earlier than baseline droughts. (6) Different trends of changes in hydrologic droughts were found under different general circulation models, thus uncertainties from general circulation models and other sources, e.g. downscaling process, should be taken into account.",
author = "Chen, {Shien Tsung} and Tseng, {Hung Wei} and Lin, {Chin Yuan} and Yang, {Tao Chang} and Pao-Shan Yu",
year = "2011",
month = "9",
day = "1",
language = "English",
volume = "57",
pages = "44--60",
journal = "Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Engineering",
issn = "0257-5744",
publisher = "Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering",
number = "3",

}

Hydrological drought in Tseng-Wen reservoir basin under climate change scenarios. / Chen, Shien Tsung; Tseng, Hung Wei; Lin, Chin Yuan; Yang, Tao Chang; Yu, Pao-Shan.

In: Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Engineering, Vol. 57, No. 3, 01.09.2011, p. 44-60.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Hydrological drought in Tseng-Wen reservoir basin under climate change scenarios

AU - Chen, Shien Tsung

AU - Tseng, Hung Wei

AU - Lin, Chin Yuan

AU - Yang, Tao Chang

AU - Yu, Pao-Shan

PY - 2011/9/1

Y1 - 2011/9/1

N2 - The study area, Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin, receives temporally uneven precipitation and is thus a basin prone to suffer droughts. This study investigated the hydrologic droughts and low flow properties in the Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin under climate change scenarios. Projected climate change data were originally the large-scale climate fields output from six general circulation models in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those large-scale climate change data were then transformed into local-scale precipitation data over the study basin by a two-stage statistical downscaling method, consisting of a spatial downscaling method using the singular value decomposition method and a temporal downscaling method using a weather generator. The modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model was used to simulate the projected streamflow under climate change scenarios. Hydrological droughts were then identified pertaining to streamflow series by the threshold method, and drought and low flow properties were analyzed. The following summarizes important findings in this study: (1) Projected precipitation increases in the wet season, and either increases or decreases in the dry season pertaining to different months. (2) Projected streamflow increases during March to September, but decreases otherwise. (3) Projected low flow tends to decrease. (4) Scenario droughts may become more frequent, but their duration and magnitude may become more diverse than the baseline droughts. (5) The times of start and end of scenario droughts may occur earlier than baseline droughts. (6) Different trends of changes in hydrologic droughts were found under different general circulation models, thus uncertainties from general circulation models and other sources, e.g. downscaling process, should be taken into account.

AB - The study area, Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin, receives temporally uneven precipitation and is thus a basin prone to suffer droughts. This study investigated the hydrologic droughts and low flow properties in the Tseng-Wen Reservoir basin under climate change scenarios. Projected climate change data were originally the large-scale climate fields output from six general circulation models in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those large-scale climate change data were then transformed into local-scale precipitation data over the study basin by a two-stage statistical downscaling method, consisting of a spatial downscaling method using the singular value decomposition method and a temporal downscaling method using a weather generator. The modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model was used to simulate the projected streamflow under climate change scenarios. Hydrological droughts were then identified pertaining to streamflow series by the threshold method, and drought and low flow properties were analyzed. The following summarizes important findings in this study: (1) Projected precipitation increases in the wet season, and either increases or decreases in the dry season pertaining to different months. (2) Projected streamflow increases during March to September, but decreases otherwise. (3) Projected low flow tends to decrease. (4) Scenario droughts may become more frequent, but their duration and magnitude may become more diverse than the baseline droughts. (5) The times of start and end of scenario droughts may occur earlier than baseline droughts. (6) Different trends of changes in hydrologic droughts were found under different general circulation models, thus uncertainties from general circulation models and other sources, e.g. downscaling process, should be taken into account.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80052452406&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80052452406&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

VL - 57

SP - 44

EP - 60

JO - Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Engineering

JF - Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Engineering

SN - 0257-5744

IS - 3

ER -