Nonlinear model for panamax secondhand ship

Ching-Chih Chang, Tin Chia Lai

Research output: Contribution to journalEditorialpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Hitherto, scholarly analyses of secondhand ship prices in the international dry bulk market have focused on Capesize. This article adopts a nonlinear model based on the well-known Gaussian distribution theory, with a view to examine Panamax activity from January 1996 to December 2007. According to X-11 and Phase Average Trend (PAT) analysis, three whole cycles were discernible during the study period. Three nonlinear prediction models are developed, which are commensurate with these findings. Evidently, the empirical results match the inflated predictions of the models, with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) falling below 20%.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2193-2198
Number of pages6
JournalApplied Economics
Issue number17
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Jul 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics


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