Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth

A Bayesian analysis of structural break models

Yi-Chi Chen, Eric Zivot

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using Bayesian methods, we re-examine the empirical evidence from Ben-David, Lumsdaine, and Papell (Empir Econ 28:303-319, 2003) regarding structural breaks in the long-run growth path of real output series for a number of OECD countries. Our Bayesian framework allows the number and pattern of structural changes in trend and variance to be endogenously determined. We find little evidence of postwar growth slowdowns across countries, and smaller output volatility for most of the developed countries after the end of World War II. Our empirical findings are consistent with neoclassical growth models, which predict increasing growth over the long run. The majority of the countries we analyze have grown faster in the postwar era as opposed to the period before the first break.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)897-921
Number of pages25
JournalEmpirical Economics
Volume39
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010 Dec 1

Fingerprint

Structural Breaks
Bayesian Analysis
Long-run
Output
Structural Change
Bayesian Methods
Growth Model
Volatility
structural change
OECD
Model
World War II
evidence
Predict
Path
Series
Structural breaks
Bayesian analysis
Long-run growth
trend

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Mathematics (miscellaneous)
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

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Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth : A Bayesian analysis of structural break models. / Chen, Yi-Chi; Zivot, Eric.

In: Empirical Economics, Vol. 39, No. 3, 01.12.2010, p. 897-921.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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