Probabilistic analysis of landslide potential of an inclined uniform soil layer of infinite length: Theorem

Jinn Chyi Chen, Chyan Deng Jan, Ming Hsi Lee

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8 Citations (Scopus)


A critical relation for mobilization (failure) of an inclined, uniform soil layer is developed, based on the requirement for balancing the driving stress and the resistance stress acting on the soil layer. Taking into consideration of the uncertainties of parameters of the considered soil layer, the equation of the failure probability (Eq. 18) and the equation of the critical slope at various probabilities of failure (Eq. 22) for the soil layer by applying the first-order second-moment method (FOSM) were developed. The failure probabilities at various mean relative water depths subject to the upper and lower values of the coefficients of variations of parameters and two inclined angles of the soil layers are also estimated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM) as well as by using FOSM for comparisons. The results obtained by FOSM are in good agreement with that obtained by MCSM, but the former is more efficient. Given the mean values and the coefficients of variation of related parameters of the soil layer, one can easily estimate the failure probability and the critical failure slope of the soil layer by applying the equations or graphs developed in the present study.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1239-1248
Number of pages10
JournalEnvironmental Geology
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 2007 Feb 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Pollution
  • Soil Science

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