TY - JOUR

T1 - Probabilistic analysis of landslide potential of an inclined uniform soil layer of infinite length

T2 - Application

AU - Chen, Jinn Chyi

AU - Jan, Chyan Deng

N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments The National Science Council in Taiwan is acknowledged for providing financial support in this research under Grants NSC 95-2221-E-211-001 and NSC 95-2625-Z-006-015. The writers are thankful to the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. Thanks are also due to Dr. Wei-Cheng Lo for his help in grammatical check on the final draft of this paper.

PY - 2008/5

Y1 - 2008/5

N2 - An extended probabilistic model that is a modification of the Chen et al. (2007,) model for evaluating the failure probability of an inclined soil layer with an infinite length was developed in the present paper, and then applied to evaluate the occurrence probability of landslide-related debris flow in Tungmen gully located in the eastern Taiwan, which occurred a devastating debris flow in 1990. The statistical properties of hydrogeological parameters were collected and summarized, and then used to evaluate the landslide-related debris-flow probabilities at various relative water depths for Tungmen gully by using the probabilistic model. Under the assumption that the soil is saturated, the soil's cohesion is negligible and the specific gravity of the solid particles of soils is a constant, a simplified probabilistic critical slope equation for the stability of an infinite slope of soils was also developed, and used to estimate the occurrence probability of debris flow. The result shows that probabilistic landslide analysis for an infinite slope could provide a suitable approximation for the risk analysis of debris flow mobilization at a given gully.

AB - An extended probabilistic model that is a modification of the Chen et al. (2007,) model for evaluating the failure probability of an inclined soil layer with an infinite length was developed in the present paper, and then applied to evaluate the occurrence probability of landslide-related debris flow in Tungmen gully located in the eastern Taiwan, which occurred a devastating debris flow in 1990. The statistical properties of hydrogeological parameters were collected and summarized, and then used to evaluate the landslide-related debris-flow probabilities at various relative water depths for Tungmen gully by using the probabilistic model. Under the assumption that the soil is saturated, the soil's cohesion is negligible and the specific gravity of the solid particles of soils is a constant, a simplified probabilistic critical slope equation for the stability of an infinite slope of soils was also developed, and used to estimate the occurrence probability of debris flow. The result shows that probabilistic landslide analysis for an infinite slope could provide a suitable approximation for the risk analysis of debris flow mobilization at a given gully.

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U2 - 10.1007/s00254-007-0900-x

DO - 10.1007/s00254-007-0900-x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:43149116783

VL - 54

SP - 1175

EP - 1183

JO - Environmental Geology

JF - Environmental Geology

SN - 1866-6280

IS - 6

ER -