TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis-application to Maanshan nuclear power plant in Taiwan
AU - Wu, En Chi
AU - Ma, Wan Hua
AU - Chen, Yen Lung
AU - Wu, Han Lun
AU - Hu, Kai Cheng
AU - Hsiao, Shih Chun
AU - Wu, Yuan Chieh
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research, Taiwan, R.O.C., under grant 1042001INER034 and the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan, R.O.C., under grant NSC 101-2628-E-006-015-MY3
PY - 2016/3/1
Y1 - 2016/3/1
N2 - In the past twelve years, two earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 have occurred in the western Pacific. These earthquakes resulted in tsunamis, causing tremendous casualties, such as the nuclear disaster in Japan on March, 2011. Taiwan is an island located in the circum-Pacific belt, along which approximately 90% of the world's largest earthquakes take place. To prevent hazards, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is applied to nuclear power plants in the coastal regions of Taiwan. The approach developed here allows for the selection of reasonable tsunamis generated from distant earthquakes in the Manila Trench. Two types of uncertainty are considered: aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Concerning the aleatory uncertainty of modeling, a validation of prediction results is conducted against observed data. And a logic tree is introduced to help with epistemic uncertainty and set up different series of source parameters. In addition, a numerical model is used to simulate tsunami propagation and wave height. Under the assumptions of the logic tree and numerical modeling, the relationship between annual probability and maximum tsunami wave height can be obtained. Finally, tsunami hazard maps can be produced and the safety assessment of nuclear power plants can be carried out. The results provide useful information for engineering design and hazard prevention.
AB - In the past twelve years, two earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 have occurred in the western Pacific. These earthquakes resulted in tsunamis, causing tremendous casualties, such as the nuclear disaster in Japan on March, 2011. Taiwan is an island located in the circum-Pacific belt, along which approximately 90% of the world's largest earthquakes take place. To prevent hazards, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is applied to nuclear power plants in the coastal regions of Taiwan. The approach developed here allows for the selection of reasonable tsunamis generated from distant earthquakes in the Manila Trench. Two types of uncertainty are considered: aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. Concerning the aleatory uncertainty of modeling, a validation of prediction results is conducted against observed data. And a logic tree is introduced to help with epistemic uncertainty and set up different series of source parameters. In addition, a numerical model is used to simulate tsunami propagation and wave height. Under the assumptions of the logic tree and numerical modeling, the relationship between annual probability and maximum tsunami wave height can be obtained. Finally, tsunami hazard maps can be produced and the safety assessment of nuclear power plants can be carried out. The results provide useful information for engineering design and hazard prevention.
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U2 - 10.2112/SI75-254.1
DO - 10.2112/SI75-254.1
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:84987711784
SN - 0749-0208
VL - 1
SP - 1267
EP - 1271
JO - Journal of Coastal Research
JF - Journal of Coastal Research
IS - 75
T2 - 14th International Coastal Symposium, ICS 2016
Y2 - 6 March 2016 through 11 March 2016
ER -