Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity

Jenq-Tzong Shiau, Hsieh Wen Shen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

244 Citations (Scopus)


Droughts are stochastic in nature, therefore, statistical assessment of droughts is an attractive approach for water resources planning and management. In this study, a methodology of frequency and risk analysis of hydrologic droughts, defined as an event during which the streamflow is continuously below a certain truncation level, is formulated. The theoretical derivation of the recurrence interval of hydrologic droughts with a certain severity or greater is obtained based on the concept of stochastic processes. For risk analysis, the distribution of the number of droughts occuring within a specific period of time and the distribution of the interarrival time of hydrologic droughts with a certain severity or greater are determined. To illustrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology, a recorded reservoir inflow is used as a case study. Satisfactory agreement is found between the observed data and the results of the proposed models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)30-40
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2001

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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