TY - JOUR
T1 - Seasonal ARIMA forecasting of inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan
AU - Chen, Ching-Fu
AU - Chang, Yu-Hern
AU - Chang, Yu Wei
PY - 2009/12/1
Y1 - 2009/12/1
N2 - This article uses the Holt-Winters method, the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, and the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model to replicate monthly inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan and to compare the models' forecasting performance. It uses the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the measurement of forecast accuracy and implements turning point analysis (TPA) to compare the model performance between the direct and indirect forecast methods. Based on the out- of-sample forecasts, all fitted models have good forecasting performance in terms of the MAPE criterion, and the SARIMA model is the best one for forecasting inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan. According to the TPA results, this article supports the out-performance of the indirect forecast method.
AB - This article uses the Holt-Winters method, the seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, and the GM(1,1) grey forecasting model to replicate monthly inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan and to compare the models' forecasting performance. It uses the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the measurement of forecast accuracy and implements turning point analysis (TPA) to compare the model performance between the direct and indirect forecast methods. Based on the out- of-sample forecasts, all fitted models have good forecasting performance in terms of the MAPE criterion, and the SARIMA model is the best one for forecasting inbound air travel arrivals to Taiwan. According to the TPA results, this article supports the out-performance of the indirect forecast method.
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U2 - 10.1080/18128600802591210
DO - 10.1080/18128600802591210
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:77956412434
VL - 5
SP - 125
EP - 140
JO - Transportmetrica A: Transport Science
JF - Transportmetrica A: Transport Science
SN - 2324-9935
IS - 2
ER -