Sequential Bayesian Design for Accelerated Life Tests

I-Chen Lee, Yili Hong, Sheng Tsaing Tseng, Tirthankar Dasgupta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Most of the recently developed methods on optimum planning for accelerated life tests (ALT) involve “guessing” values of parameters to be estimated, and substituting such guesses in the proposed solution to obtain the final testing plan. In reality, such guesses may be very different from true values of the parameters, leading to inefficient test plans. To address this problem, we propose a sequential Bayesian strategy for planning of ALTs and a Bayesian estimation procedure for updating the parameter estimates sequentially. The proposed approach is motivated by ALT for polymer composite materials, but are generally applicable to a wide range of testing scenarios. Through the proposed sequential Bayesian design, one can efficiently collect data and then make predictions for the field performance. We use extensive simulations to evaluate the properties of the proposed sequential test planning strategy. We compare the proposed method to various traditional non-sequential optimum designs. Our results show that the proposed strategy is more robust and efficient, as compared to existing non-sequential optimum designs. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)472-483
Number of pages12
JournalTechnometrics
Volume60
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Oct 2

Fingerprint

Bayesian Design
Accelerated Life Test
Sequential Design
Planning
Guess
Sequential Test
Polymer Composites
Testing
Bayesian Estimation
Composite Materials
Updating
Scenarios
Evaluate
Prediction
Composite materials
Polymers
Estimate
Range of data
Strategy
Simulation

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Applied Mathematics

Cite this

Lee, I-Chen ; Hong, Yili ; Tseng, Sheng Tsaing ; Dasgupta, Tirthankar. / Sequential Bayesian Design for Accelerated Life Tests. In: Technometrics. 2018 ; Vol. 60, No. 4. pp. 472-483.
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Sequential Bayesian Design for Accelerated Life Tests. / Lee, I-Chen; Hong, Yili; Tseng, Sheng Tsaing; Dasgupta, Tirthankar.

In: Technometrics, Vol. 60, No. 4, 02.10.2018, p. 472-483.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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