Spatial analysis of potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic in aquacultural tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) in blackfoot disease hyperendemic areas

This work analyzed spatially potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic (As) contents in aquacultural tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) in coastal regions of southwestern Taiwan, where the blackfoot disease prevails. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) was used to reproduce As exposure distributions in groundwater based on their three-dimensional variability. A target cancer risk (TR) associated with ingesting As in aquacultural tilapia was calculated to evaluate the potential risk to human health. Owing to sparse measured data, Monte Carlo simulation and SIS properly accounted for the uncertainty of assessed parameters. The probabilistic risk assessment formulated suitable strategies under various remedial stages. Aquacultural regions with high risks were mapped to elucidate the safety of groundwater use at different depths. Many TRs determined from the risks at the 75th and 95th percentiles exceed one millionth in the regions, indicating that ingesting tilapia farmed in the highly As- polluted regions poses potential cancer threats to human health. The 75th percentile of TR is considered in formulating a remedial strategy for the aquacultural use of groundwater in the preliminary stage. Additionally, this study suggests reducing the use of groundwater in aquaculture or changing the depths from which groundwater is withdrawn in the areas with high risks of cancer.