Stacking ensemble method with the RNN meta-learner for short-term PV power forecasting

Andi A.H. Lateko, Hong Tzer Yang, Chao Ming Huang, Happy Aprillia, Che Yuan Hsu, Jie Lun Zhong, Nguyễn H. Phương

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting urges in economic and secure operations of power systems. To avoid an inaccurate individual forecasting model, we propose an approach for a one-day to three-day ahead PV power hourly forecasting based on the stacking ensemble model with a recurrent neural network (RNN) as a meta-learner. The proposed approach is built by using real weather data and forecasted weather data in the training and testing stages, respectively. To accommodate uncertain weather, a daily clustering method based on statistical features, e.g., daily average, maximum, and standard deviation of PV power is applied in the data sets. Historical PV power output and weather data are used to train and test the model. The single learner considered in this research are artificial neural network, deep neural network, support vector regressions, long short-term memory, and convolutional neural network. Then, RNN is used to combine the forecasting results of each single learner. It is also important to observe the best combination of the single learners in this paper. Furthermore, to compare the performance of the proposed method, a random forest ensemble instead of RNN is used as a benchmark for comparison. Mean relative error (MRE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are used as criteria to validate the accuracy of different forecasting models. The MRE of the proposed RNN ensemble learner model is 4.29%, which has significant improvements by about 7–40%, 7–30%, and 8% compared to the single models, the combinations of fewer single learners, and the benchmark method, respectively. The results show that the proposed method is promising for use in real PV power forecasting systems.

Original languageEnglish
Article number4733
JournalEnergies
Volume14
Issue number16
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Aug 2

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Fuel Technology
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Energy (miscellaneous)
  • Control and Optimization
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Stacking ensemble method with the RNN meta-learner for short-term PV power forecasting'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this