TY - GEN
T1 - Technology and demand forecasts for renewable energy systems using conjoint analysis
AU - Shih, Li Hsing
AU - Ou, Yu Jun
PY - 2011/5/16
Y1 - 2011/5/16
N2 - This study focuses on technology and demand forecasts for photovoltaic technologies like c-Si technology and thin film technology. Energy efficiency of both technologies will improve while cost reduction of thin film technology is larger in a long run. On the other hand, customers' preference structure is modeled with attributes including price, capacity, efficiency and lifetime to find which technology customers would prefer in the future by using conjoint model. Along with the improvement on cost and efficiency, the demand of these renewable energy technologies can be forecasted. Competition and market shares of the technologies can be thus simulated. The results show demand forecasts of different competing photovoltaic technologies up to year 2030. In addition, changes of future potential market segment and corresponding customers' characteristics are described and discussed.
AB - This study focuses on technology and demand forecasts for photovoltaic technologies like c-Si technology and thin film technology. Energy efficiency of both technologies will improve while cost reduction of thin film technology is larger in a long run. On the other hand, customers' preference structure is modeled with attributes including price, capacity, efficiency and lifetime to find which technology customers would prefer in the future by using conjoint model. Along with the improvement on cost and efficiency, the demand of these renewable energy technologies can be forecasted. Competition and market shares of the technologies can be thus simulated. The results show demand forecasts of different competing photovoltaic technologies up to year 2030. In addition, changes of future potential market segment and corresponding customers' characteristics are described and discussed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79955818879&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79955818879&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/APPEEC.2011.5747681
DO - 10.1109/APPEEC.2011.5747681
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:79955818879
SN - 9781424462551
T3 - Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC
BT - 2011 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC 2011 - Proceedings
T2 - 2011 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC 2011
Y2 - 25 March 2011 through 28 March 2011
ER -
