The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model

Ziping Chiang, Dar Ying Jan, Hsueh-Sheng Chang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper proposed a time series forecasting approach based on improving grey model (IGM). This method is based on fitting difference equation and yields better predictive result than the traditional one, and is demonstrated by forecasting pavement performance index as international roughness index. The results show that this approach can minimizes the error based on the traditional grey model, adaptive α, and grey rolling model with 19.4%, 17.7%, and 9.5%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications
Subtitle of host publicationWith Aspects of Artificial Intelligence - Third International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Proceedings
Pages309-314
Number of pages6
Publication statusPublished - 2007 Dec 1
Event3rd International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007 - Qingdao, China
Duration: 2007 Aug 212007 Aug 24

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume4682 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Other

Other3rd International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007
CountryChina
CityQingdao
Period07-08-2107-08-24

Fingerprint

Grey Model
Performance Index
Pavements
Forecasting
Time Series Forecasting
Roughness
Difference equation
Difference equations
Minimise
Time series
Surface roughness
Model

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • Computer Science(all)

Cite this

Chiang, Z., Jan, D. Y., & Chang, H-S. (2007). The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model. In Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications: With Aspects of Artificial Intelligence - Third International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Proceedings (pp. 309-314). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 4682 LNAI).
Chiang, Ziping ; Jan, Dar Ying ; Chang, Hsueh-Sheng. / The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model. Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications: With Aspects of Artificial Intelligence - Third International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Proceedings. 2007. pp. 309-314 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)).
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title = "The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model",
abstract = "This paper proposed a time series forecasting approach based on improving grey model (IGM). This method is based on fitting difference equation and yields better predictive result than the traditional one, and is demonstrated by forecasting pavement performance index as international roughness index. The results show that this approach can minimizes the error based on the traditional grey model, adaptive α, and grey rolling model with 19.4{\%}, 17.7{\%}, and 9.5{\%}.",
author = "Ziping Chiang and Jan, {Dar Ying} and Hsueh-Sheng Chang",
year = "2007",
month = "12",
day = "1",
language = "English",
isbn = "9783540742012",
series = "Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)",
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booktitle = "Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications",

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Chiang, Z, Jan, DY & Chang, H-S 2007, The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model. in Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications: With Aspects of Artificial Intelligence - Third International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), vol. 4682 LNAI, pp. 309-314, 3rd International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Qingdao, China, 07-08-21.

The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model. / Chiang, Ziping; Jan, Dar Ying; Chang, Hsueh-Sheng.

Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications: With Aspects of Artificial Intelligence - Third International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Proceedings. 2007. p. 309-314 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 4682 LNAI).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model

AU - Chiang, Ziping

AU - Jan, Dar Ying

AU - Chang, Hsueh-Sheng

PY - 2007/12/1

Y1 - 2007/12/1

N2 - This paper proposed a time series forecasting approach based on improving grey model (IGM). This method is based on fitting difference equation and yields better predictive result than the traditional one, and is demonstrated by forecasting pavement performance index as international roughness index. The results show that this approach can minimizes the error based on the traditional grey model, adaptive α, and grey rolling model with 19.4%, 17.7%, and 9.5%.

AB - This paper proposed a time series forecasting approach based on improving grey model (IGM). This method is based on fitting difference equation and yields better predictive result than the traditional one, and is demonstrated by forecasting pavement performance index as international roughness index. The results show that this approach can minimizes the error based on the traditional grey model, adaptive α, and grey rolling model with 19.4%, 17.7%, and 9.5%.

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M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 9783540742012

T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)

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Chiang Z, Jan DY, Chang H-S. The study of pavement performance index forecasting via improving grey model. In Advanced Intelligent Computing Theories and Applications: With Aspects of Artificial Intelligence - Third International Conference on Intelligent Computing, ICIC 2007, Proceedings. 2007. p. 309-314. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)).