Tourism revenue forecasting

A hybrid model approach

Kevin-P Hwang, Yeong Jia Day

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper proposes a hybrid approach, combining a Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology and a feed-forward back-propagation network. It proposes to take advantage of the forecasting strength of ARIMA and ANN models and utilizes the capturing of linear and nonlinear patterns to achieve better accuracy in forecasting Taiwan's 1961-2009 annual tourism revenue time series data. It will not only provide a comparison of prediction accuracy of annual tourism revenue between ARIMA, an artificial neural network and the proposed ARIMA-ANN hybrid model, but also reveal how the proposed ARIMA-ANN hybrid approach could outperform the ARIMA and neural network model employed for both linear and nonlinear time series data.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)473-483
Number of pages11
JournalActual Problems of Economics
Volume141
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint

Hybrid model
Tourism
Revenue
Hybrid approach
Time series data
Nonlinear time series
Network model
Neural networks
Back propagation
Prediction accuracy
Taiwan
Methodology
Box-Jenkins
Artificial neural network

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics and Econometrics

Cite this

Hwang, Kevin-P ; Day, Yeong Jia. / Tourism revenue forecasting : A hybrid model approach. In: Actual Problems of Economics. 2013 ; Vol. 141, No. 3. pp. 473-483.
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Tourism revenue forecasting : A hybrid model approach. / Hwang, Kevin-P; Day, Yeong Jia.

In: Actual Problems of Economics, Vol. 141, No. 3, 2013, p. 473-483.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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