This study applies a system dynamics(SD) model for the population growth and urban development in Chubei City Hsinchu Taiwan The aim of the SD model is to test the outcomes of urban development policy scenarios and to evaluate the key factors that affect population growth in the suburban HSR station area It consists of five sub-systems including population labor market housing market HSR commuting and Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) accessibility respectively The urban development schemes including HSR station-related megaprojects and housing price stabilized policy are simulated by the SD model and the findings are verified with historical data(2009~2016) The timeframe of urban development policy scenarios is from 2016 to 2026 and results indicate that manufacturing and tertiary workplace daily HSR commuting affordability HSP accessibility play an important role in determining the population growth of Chubei City while housing prices will have a negative impact Furthermore the most effective urban development policy to improve population growth is to increase the job accessibility of suburban HSR station area including shortening the travel time of the HSR station to the Hsinchu Science Park and the HSR commuting time form Chubei city central business district (CBD) to Taipei city CBD This research suggests that a regular overall guideline of urban planning and design for the suburban HSR station area can investigate the trip distribution of HSR commuters in the future and take into account economic and social sustainable development policy
A System Dynamics Approach to HSR Station Area Urban Development Modelling: A Case Study of Chubei City Hsinchu
閔翰, 吳. (Author). 2019
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis