Effects of climate change on the landslide hazards: An example from Liouguei

Abstract

Affected by climate change heavy precipitation events in Taiwan at the late 21st century are very likely increasing in the frequency and intensity In mountainous regions the terrain of Taiwan is very steep Therefore it is necessary to study the effect of climate change on the landslide hazards in Taiwan This study employs the landslide inventories prepared from Formosat-2 annual images from the Liouguei area builds the landslides susceptibility model with 4 factors - slope aspect total flux and lithology then uses two event-based landslide inventory to calculate the relative contribution of rainfall and landslide susceptibility obtains the landslide hazard index (LHI) Finally we employ the estimation of climate change provided by Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaptation Knowledge Platform (TCCIP) simulated by the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and dynamical downscaling approach then compare the three time periods - present (1979-2003) near future (2015-2039) far future (2075-2099) input to the landslides model and output the LHI As the result because of the concentrated precipitation pattern in near future the trend of LHI will be overall increasing; in far future there will be a sharp increase of LHI

Date of Award	2019
Original language	English
Supervisor	Cheng-Chien Liu (Supervisor)