AbstractThis study proposed a numerical model for valuing the long-term ecotourism development of Anping Coastal Wetland Park based on System Dynamics. The construction of system dynamics model in this study consists of three parts:the first includes the determination of the attributes most important to visitors through the Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP); the second covers the establishment of the mathematical relations of the abovementioned attributes and visitors’ willingness to pay through Conjoint Analysis; the third contains the research results of the first and second parts in order to establish the System Dynamics model for valuing ecotourism in the research region. Additionally, through a visual approach, the relationship between the visitors’ crowding perception and acceptability was analyzed in order to estimate the social recreational carrying capacity.
The results show that based on the system dynamics model, the number of visitors and the visitors’ crowding perception form a crucial feedback loop. The visitors’ crowding perception increase as the number of visitors increase. When the visitors’ crowding perception exceeded the acceptability, visitors’ willingness to pay decreased. Hence, even though the number of visitors increased with time and continued to grow to a stable number, the value of the wetland ecotourism became even lower. Finally, through scenario analysis, ideal policy for enhancing the value of ecotourism in the research region were proposed.
|Date of Award||2013|
|Supervisor||Zsu-Hsin Chuang (Supervisor)|