A Study of Models for Forecasting E-Commerce Sales During a Price War in the Medical Product Industry

Pei-Hsuan Hsieh

研究成果: Conference contribution

2 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

When faced with a price war, the accuracy of forecasting sales in e-commerce greatly influences an enterprise’s or a retailer’s merchandise inventory strategies. When faced with a price war, an enterprise might obtain certain consumption patterns by analyzing previous sales data. This case study research was conducted in collaboration with a medical product company to explore which of the various forecasting models can better inform a company’s inventory plan. The study used the company’s data from Amazon.com regarding sales volume, number of views, company ranking, etc. between February 7 2016 and March 28 of 2018. Three potential methods of data mining were selected from the literature: the exponential smoothing method, the linear trend method, and the seasonal variation method. Of these, the most suitable was identified for price war situations to forecast the sales volume for April 2018 and to provide concrete information for the company’s inventory plan. The results showed that the seasonal variation method is more suitable than the other two sales forecasting methods. To obtain a more accurate sales forecast during a price war, the seasonal variation method is recommended to be used in the following approaches: Adjust the seasonal index by using a simple moving average. Remove the seasonal index from the sales volume, and conduct a regression analysis using the data within the last month. The resulting predicted value (with the seasonal index removed) should be multiplied by each period’s corresponding weighted moving average to obtain a more accurate sales forecast during a price war.

原文English
主出版物標題HCI in Business, Government and Organizations. eCommerce and Consumer Behavior - 6th International Conference, HCIBGO 2019, Held as Part of the 21st HCI International Conference, HCII 2019, Proceedings
編輯Fiona Fui-Hoon Nah, Keng Siau
發行者Springer Verlag
頁面3-21
頁數19
ISBN(列印)9783030223342
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2019 一月 1
事件6th International Conference on HCI in Business, Government, and Organizations, HCIBGO 2019, held as part of the 21st International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, HCI International 2019 - Orlando, United States
持續時間: 2019 七月 262019 七月 31

出版系列

名字Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
11588 LNCS
ISSN(列印)0302-9743
ISSN(電子)1611-3349

Conference

Conference6th International Conference on HCI in Business, Government, and Organizations, HCIBGO 2019, held as part of the 21st International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, HCI International 2019
國家/地區United States
城市Orlando
期間19-07-2619-07-31

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 理論電腦科學
  • 電腦科學(全部)

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