A study on the impact of SARS on the forecast of visitor arrivals to China

Ying Chih Chen, Hsin Hong Kang, Tzer Chyun Yang

研究成果: Article同行評審

16 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The objective of this study is to build a model to forecast the visitor arrivals to China and to examine the impact caused by the SARS incident. Seasonal ARIMA models and seasonal dummy variables are created to build the forecast models, and we use intervention analysis to process the outliers resulting from unexpected incidents. The results reveal that the SARS incident had a considerable impact on the international visitor arrivals to China and caused the figures to drop by at least 42%. The seasonal ARIMA models are also used to forecast the visitor arrivals to China up to the end of 2007.

原文English
頁(從 - 到)31-50
頁數20
期刊Journal of Asia-Pacific Business
8
發行號1
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2007

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 商業與國際管理
  • 商業、管理和會計 (全部)

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