Background: An unconventional risk factor, “dysfunction of hemodialysis vascular access”, was demonstrated to be associated with subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in our previous study. However, applying this suggestion in a clinical scenario may be not intuitive. A group-based trajectory model was applied to further recognize those patients with the highest risks for MACE. Methods and Results: In a cohort of patients who received hemodialysis from 2001 to 2010, we identified 9,711 cases that developed MACE in the stage of stable maintenance dialysis, and 19,422 randomly selected controls matched to cases on age, gender and duration of dialysis. Events of vascular access dysfunction in the 6-month period before MACE for cases and index dates for controls were evaluated. By group-based trajectory modeling, patients according to their counts of vascular access dysfunction in each month over the 6-month period prior to MACE or index dates were categorized. There were 26,744 patients in group 1 (no dysfunction), 650 in group 2 (escalating dysfunction) and 1,739 in group 3 (persistent dysfunction). Logistic regression analysis indicated that patients in group 3 had the highest chance of subsequent MACE (odds ratio 2.47, in comparison with group 1) after controlling for all the available potential confounders. Conclusions: Uninterrupted clusters of vascular access dysfunction are associated with a higher risk of subsequent MACE.
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