Bivariate Drought Characterization of Two Contrasting Climatic Regions in India Using Copula

Arya Sajeev, S. Deb Barma, Amai Mahesha, Jenq Tzong Shiau

研究成果: Article同行評審

2 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This study aims to construct the multiple time-scale joint distributions of drought duration and severity using two-dimensional copulas and compare the drought characteristics in India's two contrasting climate regions: the arid Rajasthan and humid, tropical Kerala. The drought occurrences were defined by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) with a threshold below -0.8 at time scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months for 1900-2016. Significant correlations were noted between the drought severity and drought duration in both regions. The Clayton copula gave a better fit than other copulas for modeling the dependence among the observed drought duration and severity. The results indicate that the probability of short-term droughts (SPI-3 and SPI-6) is more significant than those of long-term droughts (SPI-12 and SPI-24) for an identical drought event in both regions. Also, the probability of severe drought events with greater duration and severity for long-term droughts (SPI-12 and SPI-24) is higher in Kerala than that in western Rajasthan. For all the time-scale SPIs, the conditional probability of drought severity for a given duration exceeding a threshold showed an increasing trend in both regions. Furthermore, the conditional probability of the drought duration given the severity for short-term droughts is greater than that of the long-term droughts for the same drought event. For short-term droughts, the conditional return period of an identical drought event is lower in Kerala than in western Rajasthan. In contrast, the conditional return period of long-term droughts is lower in western Rajasthan. Additionally, copula-based nonexceedance conditional distributions for the major crops were established based on rainfall.

原文English
文章編號05020005
期刊Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
147
發行號3
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2021 三月 1

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 土木與結構工程
  • 水科學與技術
  • 農業與生物科學(雜項)

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