Development and validation of a prediction index for recent mortality in advanced COPD patients

Sheng Han Tsai, Chia Yin Shih, Chin Wei Kuo, Xin Min Liao, Peng Chan Lin, Chian Wei Chen, Tzuen Ren Hsiue, Chiung Zuei Chen

研究成果: Article同行評審

摘要

The primary barrier to initiating palliative care for advanced COPD patients is the unpredictable course of the disease. We enroll 752 COPD patients into the study and validate the prediction tools for 1-year mortality using the current guidelines for palliative care. We also develop a composite prediction index for 1-year mortality and validate it in another cohort of 342 patients. Using the current prognostic models for recent mortality in palliative care, the best area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality is 0.68. Using the Modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score and oxygen saturation to define the combined dyspnea and oxygenation (DO) index, we find that the AUC of the DO index is 0.84 for predicting mortality in the validated cohort. Predictions of 1-year mortality based on the current palliative care guideline for COPD patients are poor. The DO index exhibits better predictive ability than other models in the study.

原文English
文章編號2
期刊npj Primary Care Respiratory Medicine
32
發行號1
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2022 12月

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 肺和呼吸系統醫學
  • 公共衛生、環境和職業健康
  • 家庭醫學

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