@article{a8aaeaadb98647be86ad74a0f23b4b14,
title = "Development and validation of a prediction index for recent mortality in advanced COPD patients",
abstract = "The primary barrier to initiating palliative care for advanced COPD patients is the unpredictable course of the disease. We enroll 752 COPD patients into the study and validate the prediction tools for 1-year mortality using the current guidelines for palliative care. We also develop a composite prediction index for 1-year mortality and validate it in another cohort of 342 patients. Using the current prognostic models for recent mortality in palliative care, the best area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality is 0.68. Using the Modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score and oxygen saturation to define the combined dyspnea and oxygenation (DO) index, we find that the AUC of the DO index is 0.84 for predicting mortality in the validated cohort. Predictions of 1-year mortality based on the current palliative care guideline for COPD patients are poor. The DO index exhibits better predictive ability than other models in the study.",
author = "Tsai, {Sheng Han} and Shih, {Chia Yin} and Kuo, {Chin Wei} and Liao, {Xin Min} and Lin, {Peng Chan} and Chen, {Chian Wei} and Hsiue, {Tzuen Ren} and Chen, {Chiung Zuei}",
note = "Funding Information: The study was funded by grants from the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST107-2627-M-006-007, MOST 109-2314-B-006-091, MOST 110-2314-B-006-099), and it was supported in part by the Higher Education Sprout Project, Ministry of Education to the Headquarters of University Advancement at National Cheng Kung University (NCKU). We are grateful to the Health and Welfare Data Science Center of the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Center of hospice palliative shared care at National Cheng Kung University Hospital (NCKUH) for providing all the data sets, facilities, and linkage services that were required for this study. Parts of our results were submitted as an e-poster in the ATS 2020 Virtual content. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",
year = "2022",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1038/s41533-021-00263-7",
language = "English",
volume = "32",
journal = "npj Primary Care Respiratory Medicine",
issn = "2055-1010",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",
}