Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory

研究成果: Conference contribution

摘要

By adopting the transition probability matrix of Markov chain method, this paper attempts to predict the short-term wave height information. This study presents the discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory, so as to understand the capability of this theory for wave forecast. The wave forecast results are obtained from wave height transition probability matrix; it shows the mean errors of the prediction of wave height within 3 days forecast are all less than 30 cm respectively. For the sake of the decrease of the error of wave forecast, the joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain which based on the observed wind speed and wave height data is applied in this study. It shows the method of joint probability of transition matrix of Markov chain is suitable for wave forecast in the Beaufort scale 1-6 grades. Various wave forecasts result in different seasons are also discussed here; the accuracies of the forecast wave height are relatively high in winter. There might be a great error of wave forecast during typhoon duration due to its non-stationary characteristics, which influences the accuracy of transition probability matrix of Markov chain.

原文English
主出版物標題Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007
頁面1965-1969
頁數5
出版狀態Published - 2007 十二月 3
事件17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 - Lisbon, Portugal
持續時間: 2007 七月 12007 七月 6

出版系列

名字Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference
ISSN(列印)1098-6189
ISSN(電子)1555-1792

Other

Other17th 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007
國家Portugal
城市Lisbon
期間07-07-0107-07-06

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering

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  • 引用此

    Lee, B. C., Wu, L. C., & Doong, D. J. (2007). Discussion on the error of wave forecast by Markov chain theory. 於 Proceedings of The Seventeenth 2007 International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, ISOPE 2007 (頁 1965-1969). (Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference).