TY - JOUR
T1 - Do local elections increase violence? Electoral cycles and organized crime in Mexico
AU - Ponce, Aldo F.
AU - López Velarde, Rodrigo Velázquez
AU - Santamaría, Jaime Sáinz
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2022/3
Y1 - 2022/3
N2 - Although several previous studies have advanced the knowledge of how violence perpetrated by DTOs affects electoral outcomes, the study of how levels of criminal violence vary during local electoral contests remains scant. Stated differently, we know little on whether the local electoral cycle has an effect on the level of criminal violence. Employing the CIDE-PPD Database, we find that local elections do have an effect on levels of DTOs violence and that the greatest incentives to upscale violence occur shortly before election day. These fluctuations suggest that DTOs are actively seeking to influence local governance in their favor especially during the campaigns. Our analysis also suggests that candidates in local Mexican elections face a more precarious and dangerous situation compared to recently-elected authorities.
AB - Although several previous studies have advanced the knowledge of how violence perpetrated by DTOs affects electoral outcomes, the study of how levels of criminal violence vary during local electoral contests remains scant. Stated differently, we know little on whether the local electoral cycle has an effect on the level of criminal violence. Employing the CIDE-PPD Database, we find that local elections do have an effect on levels of DTOs violence and that the greatest incentives to upscale violence occur shortly before election day. These fluctuations suggest that DTOs are actively seeking to influence local governance in their favor especially during the campaigns. Our analysis also suggests that candidates in local Mexican elections face a more precarious and dangerous situation compared to recently-elected authorities.
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U2 - 10.1007/s12117-019-09373-8
DO - 10.1007/s12117-019-09373-8
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85073952451
SN - 1084-4791
VL - 25
SP - 37
EP - 57
JO - Trends in Organized Crime
JF - Trends in Organized Crime
IS - 1
ER -