Do local elections increase violence? Electoral cycles and organized crime in Mexico

Aldo F. Ponce, Rodrigo Velázquez López Velarde, Jaime Sáinz Santamaría

研究成果: Article同行評審

摘要

Although several previous studies have advanced the knowledge of how violence perpetrated by DTOs affects electoral outcomes, the study of how levels of criminal violence vary during local electoral contests remains scant. Stated differently, we know little on whether the local electoral cycle has an effect on the level of criminal violence. Employing the CIDE-PPD Database, we find that local elections do have an effect on levels of DTOs violence and that the greatest incentives to upscale violence occur shortly before election day. These fluctuations suggest that DTOs are actively seeking to influence local governance in their favor especially during the campaigns. Our analysis also suggests that candidates in local Mexican elections face a more precarious and dangerous situation compared to recently-elected authorities.

原文English
期刊Trends in Organized Crime
DOIs
出版狀態Accepted/In press - 2019

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Law

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