Ensemble forecasting on wave modelling

Yang-Ming Fan, Shunqi Pan, Jia Ming Chen, Chia Chuen Kao

研究成果: Paper同行評審

摘要

The purpose of this study is to quantitatively assess the effect of uncertainties on the wave forecasts using the ensemble approach. The ensemble method is an effective approach to assess the effect of the model uncertainty by producing not only one, but several forecasts. The ensemble wave modelling system was applied to the Taiwan sea area. There are four different operational atmospheric models that provide predictions of wind at 10 m height above sea surface. The simulated wave of WAVEWATCH III drove from NCEP, JMA, NFS, and WRF wind fields. From the simulated wave heights of all ensemble members, it can be clearly seen that the uncertainties from the atmospheric predictions have significantly affected the predicted hydrodynamic results. A further ensemble statistics, including the ensemble mean, and mean ± standard deviation. The ensemble statistics that the accuracy of the waves can be considerably improved by the ensemble mean + standard deviation.

原文English
頁面809-820
頁數12
出版狀態Published - 2011 一月 1
事件10th International Conference on the Mediterranean Coastal Environment, MEDCOAST 2011 - Rhodes, Greece
持續時間: 2011 十月 252011 十月 29

Conference

Conference10th International Conference on the Mediterranean Coastal Environment, MEDCOAST 2011
國家/地區Greece
城市Rhodes
期間11-10-2511-10-29

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 地理、規劃與發展

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