Ensemble wave forecasting over typhoon period

Yang Ming Fan, Shunqi Pan, Jia Ming Chen, Chia Chuen Kao

研究成果: Conference contribution

1 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The purpose of this study is to quantitatively assess the effect of uncertainties on the wave forecasts using the ensemble approach. The ensemble method is an effective approach to assess the effect of the model uncertainty by producing not only one, but several forecasts. The ensemble wave modelling system was applied to the Taiwan sea area, especially for typhoon wave. There are four different operational atmospheric models that provide predictions of wind at 10 m height above sea surface. The simulated wave of WAVEWATCH III drove from NCEP, JMA, NFS, and WRF wind fields. From the simulated wave heights of all ensemble members, it can be clearly seen that the uncertainties from the atmospheric predictions have significantly affected the predicted hydrodynamic results. A further ensemble statistics, including the ensemble mean, and mean ± standard deviation. The measurement outcome scatters in between wave forecasting of mean + standard deviation and mean - standard deviation, which proves that the ensemble forecasting is able to reasonably predict typhoon waves. Therefore, the accuracy of the predictions of waves can be significantly improved by using ensemble approach closer to the observed wave measurement.

原文English
主出版物標題OCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen
主出版物子標題The Challenges of the Northern Dimension
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2013 十月 30
事件OCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension - Bergen, Norway
持續時間: 2013 六月 102013 六月 13

出版系列

名字OCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension

Conference

ConferenceOCEANS 2013 MTS/IEEE Bergen: The Challenges of the Northern Dimension
國家/地區Norway
城市Bergen
期間13-06-1013-06-13

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 海洋工程

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