Evaluation of the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait

Tsang Jung Chang, Chun Lung Chen, Yi Long Tu, Hung Te Yeh, Yu-Ting Wu

研究成果: Article

13 引文 (Scopus)

摘要

A new statistical downscaling framework is proposed to evaluate the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. In this framework, a two-parameter Weibull distribution function is used to estimate the wind energy density distribution in the strait. An empirically statistical downscaling model that relates the Weibull parameters to output of a General Circulation Model (GCM) and regression coefficients is adopted. The regression coefficients are calculated using wind speed results obtained from a past climate (1981-2000) simulation reconstructed by a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. These WRF-reconstructed wind speed results are validated with data collected at a weather station on an islet inside the strait. The comparison shows that the probability distributions of the monthly wind speeds obtained from WRF-reconstructed and measured wind speed data are in acceptable agreement, with small discrepancies of 10.3% and 7.9% for the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution, respectively. The statistical downscaling framework with output from three chosen GCMs (i.e., ECHAM5, CM2.1 and CGCM2.3.2) is applied to evaluate the wind energy density distribution in Taiwan Strait for three future climate periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The results show that the wind energy density distributions in the future climate periods are higher in the eastern half of Taiwan Strait, but reduce slightly by 3% compared with that in the past climate period.

原文English
頁(從 - 到)435-445
頁數11
期刊Energy Conversion and Management
95
DOIs
出版狀態Published - 2015 五月 1

指紋

Climate change
Wind power
Weibull distribution
Probability distributions
Distribution functions

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering
  • Fuel Technology
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology

引用此文

Chang, Tsang Jung ; Chen, Chun Lung ; Tu, Yi Long ; Yeh, Hung Te ; Wu, Yu-Ting. / Evaluation of the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. 於: Energy Conversion and Management. 2015 ; 卷 95. 頁 435-445.
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Evaluation of the climate change impact on wind resources in Taiwan Strait. / Chang, Tsang Jung; Chen, Chun Lung; Tu, Yi Long; Yeh, Hung Te; Wu, Yu-Ting.

於: Energy Conversion and Management, 卷 95, 01.05.2015, p. 435-445.

研究成果: Article

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